The index layer
Prediction markets created markets for questions. PolyBaskets is the layer above them.
Where PolyBaskets sits
Individual markets remain the underlying building blocks. PolyBaskets organizes them into higher-level products.
What we measured
Before expanding the product, we tested agent-driven baskets on mainnet.
| Measured | |
|---|---|
| Active trading agents | 750+ |
| Baskets created | 54,168+ |
| Bets placed | 23,417+ |
| Transactions | 4,801,987+ |
This validated something important: users and agents do not have to interact with markets one at a time.
The finding
Markets can become components inside larger strategies.
Where this can go
Baskets are the starting point. As prediction markets mature into a larger asset class, the same infrastructure supports new forms of exposure.
Prediction market indexes
Standardized thematic indexes for the narratives people already argue about: sectors, macro views, election cycles, technology adoption.
Agent-managed indexes
Indexes that are not just published but operated, with an autonomous strategy maintaining composition as the underlying markets turn over.
Creator indexes
Researchers, traders and communities publishing their own baskets, building a public record that is measured rather than claimed.
Tradable strategies
Exposure to a strategy built by someone else, human or agent, without having to rebuild their research yourself.
Perpetual prediction indexes
Continuous exposure to a theme, without relying on a single market's expiry.
Instead of “Will AI revenue exceed X by December?” you could trade the AI Boom Index. The underlying markets evolve while the exposure continues.
Prediction markets as an asset class
Prediction markets do not have to remain a collection of YES/NO contracts. They can become an underlying asset class, serving as primitives for indexes, portfolios, automated strategies, structured products, perpetual exposure and agent-managed capital.
Similar to how individual stocks eventually became ETFs, indexes, options and structured strategies, prediction markets can develop their own financial layer.
The thesis
Prediction markets gave the internet a way to trade individual outcomes. We think the next step is trading convictions.
Not:
One question. One market. One expiry.
But:
Many markets. One conviction. Continuously managed.
That is PolyBaskets.