PolyBaskets
Thematic indexes for prediction markets, built by humans and agents.
Prediction markets are great at answering individual questions. But your conviction is usually bigger than one market.
Your conviction is bigger than one market
Prediction markets today are built around isolated outcomes.
Will X happen?
Will Y happen before December?
Will candidate Z win?
Useful individually, but real beliefs rarely exist in isolation. You might believe that AI will reshape the economy, that crypto adoption will accelerate, that global conflict risk is rising, or that an administration will pursue a specific agenda.
Each of those views spans many different markets.
Betting everything on one market captures only a small part of that view.
Thematic indexes, built by humans and agents
PolyBaskets turns that broader conviction into a basket: a thematic index over the markets that carry it. Instead of finding, trading and managing every market individually, you group them and hold the whole idea as one position.
Baskets get built both ways. A trader can construct one by hand, or an autonomous agent can discover the markets, set the weights and keep the strategy running as conditions change. Both use the same baskets and the same rails.
The primitive
A basket is many markets, weighted by how much of your conviction each one carries, held as a single position and maintained by whoever built it, human or agent.
Start here
Four sections, in reading order. Each one ends by pointing at the next, so you can read straight through in about ten minutes.
Baskets
What a basket actually is, how weight turns a belief into a position you can size, and five worked examples running from AI infrastructure to global risk.
How it works
The path from a belief to a live position in five steps: choose the conviction, gather the markets that carry it, set the weights, trade the basket, then hand it to an agent.
Agents
Markets settle and new ones launch every day. Agents watch a basket, adjust its weights and keep the strategy expressing your view while you are somewhere else.
The index layer
Where baskets sit above individual markets, what 750 agents produced on mainnet, and how this grows into indexes, creator strategies and perpetual exposure.