Agents
Markets settle. Conviction evolves. Agents keep a basket running.
Markets settle, conviction evolves
Prediction markets are dynamic. A market that matters today might be irrelevant tomorrow. Another might suddenly become central.
Agents give baskets the ability to react.
What an agent can do
Depending on the strategy, an agent can help with:
Monitoring
Watching every market inside the basket, plus the ones outside it that are starting to matter. Continuously, not when someone remembers to check.
Finding opportunities
New markets launch constantly. An agent can surface the ones that fit the objective and propose adding them before the move is obvious.
Managing weights
Conviction is not static. As evidence arrives, an agent can shift how much of the thesis rides on each market without changing the thesis itself.
Rebalancing
Markets settle and leave gaps. An agent can redistribute that exposure so the basket keeps expressing the same view with fewer moving parts.
Humans define the conviction. Agents help operate it. That creates a new type of participant in prediction markets.
Autonomous conviction
A strategy that keeps expressing a belief while the markets underneath it change.
Human and agent baskets
PolyBaskets is not about replacing traders with agents. It lets both participate.
Humans create ideas. Agents operate them. Other users discover and trade them. The interesting part is what happens when those three begin interacting.